金色财经
金色财经|Jul 20, 2026 02:53
Economist Zhao Jian: The market needs another 924 level bailout According to a report by Golden Finance on July 20th, economist Zhao Jian stated that the two core indicators for judging a bull market - trading volume and profitability - are currently severely distorted. Let's first look at the trading volume. The daily average trading volume of A-shares remains above 1.2 trillion yuan, and even exceeds 3 trillion yuan for several days, but there is a huge amount of water involved; According to data from 2026, quantitative trading accounts for 36.8% of total A-share transactions, with some trading days even exceeding 40%. Looking at the profit effect again, in the first half of the year, only 32% of the 5528 stocks in the market rose, which means nearly 70% of the stocks were falling. When there are only a few AI stocks in the market to support the facade, and most investors are losing money, this is not a healthy bull market, but a typical "structural foam". At the retail level, the data is shocking. As of late June 2026, the China Securities Association, in conjunction with top securities firms, has conducted a sample survey showing that the proportion of losses in active retail accounts in A-shares is as high as 79% -82%, while the proportion of profitable accounts is only 19% -21%. The traditional pattern of "seven losses, two balances, and one gain" has been completely rewritten as "eight losses, one balance, and one gain". The average return rate for retail investors in the first half of the year was -23.6%, with a per capita floating loss of about 21000 yuan and a median return of -25%. Small individual investors with less than 100000 yuan have a loss rate as high as 98% -99%, almost completely wiped out. Zhao Jian called on the policy level to immediately, decisively, and unexpectedly introduce more proactive rescue policies than 924: the central bank directly provides liquidity, increases the scale of securities swap convenience from 500 billion to 2 trillion or even higher, and clarifies the intention of "unlimited" support; Temporary suspension of IPO and refinancing; Urgently implement measures to restrict high-frequency trading, increase trading costs, and suspend programmatic trading; Central Huijin should clarify its positioning as a "stabilization fund" and buy at no cost during market panic periods to convey a "national bottom" signal; Simultaneously launching policies such as real estate savings collection, lowering mortgage interest rates, and fully lifting purchase restrictions to block the negative feedback of the "dual killing of stocks and houses"; Substantially increase the upper limit of the proportion of pension and insurance funds entering the market, and provide tax incentives to stabilize the market valuation center with "long money".
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