[Prediction Market Traders Bearish on the Probability of the 'CLARITY Act' Passing by 2026] According to a report by Jinse Finance on July 20, citing Bitcoin.com, trading sentiment on the crypto prediction market Polymarket has turned fully bearish regarding the 'CLARITY Act' becoming law by 2026, with the probability of the act passing this year dropping to a historic low. At the beginning of the year, market expectations for the act's passage peaked at 82%. However, as negotiations have reached multiple deadlocks, the probability has continued to decline significantly. The core obstacles hindering the act's progress are concentrated in three areas: first, prolonged stalemates over ethical provisions, with bipartisan disagreements on clauses addressing conflicts of interest involving politicians and the president's crypto assets; second, opposition from banking lobbying groups to provisions related to interest-bearing stablecoins, with traditional financial institutions like JPMorgan Chase applying continuous pressure to block the act; and third, a tight congressional schedule and the upcoming midterm elections, which have significantly reduced the window for the act's review and voting. Although leading industry players generally support this comprehensive digital asset regulatory act, traders believe that the multiple disagreements cannot be resolved in the short term, making it highly unlikely that the act will complete the full legislative process and take effect by 2026. Current market betting data reflects the industry's pessimistic expectations regarding the timeline for U.S. crypto compliance legislation, with regulatory uncertainty continuing to weigh on mid- to long-term sentiment in the crypto market.