I increasingly feel that the market is undergoing an easily overlooked asset pricing switch. Many people have seen: AI stocks fell, BTC is not rising, Gold also fell. The first reaction is: Risk Off has arrived. But if it is really a risk off in the traditional sense, there is a phenomenon that is difficult to explain: Why did the war escalate and gold actually fall by about 2.6% in a week? Because the market is not trading at the first level of logic. But it's the second layer. War escalation ↓ Oil price increase ↓ Inflation expectations rise again ↓ The space for interest rate cuts has been compressed ↓ Maintain high interest rates for a longer period of time This is the common variable behind all assets recently. So you will see a very interesting phenomenon: Gold lost. Not because the need for hedging has disappeared, But it's because 'hedging' has temporarily lost to 'real interest rates'. AI stocks also lost. It's not because AI hasn't grown, But high valuations are most afraid of long-term high capital costs. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has retreated about 20% from its recent high. The market is starting to ask a new question: The money earned by future AI, Is it worth the expensive price today? Then there is BTC. BTC is currently around 64500 US dollars. More noteworthy is that: It has been fluctuating in the range of 60000 to 70000 US dollars for about 307 days. This is a very lengthy process of chip exchange. Many people feel that: If it hasn't risen for so long, it's weak. But instead, I started paying attention to another possibility: When an asset experiences a long-term sideways trend but has not yet completed a trend collapse, it may be using "time" instead of "price" to complete the adjustment. This is the most important logic I have when looking at BTC now. I'm not in a hurry to predict: Is the next stop 50000 or 80000. I only observe one thing: Relative strength. If next: Semiconductors continue to decline, Oil prices continue to remain high, The market continues to be concerned about high interest rates, But BTC began to refuse to fall below the long-term range, That would be a very important signal. Because of true dominance, It's never who rises the most in a bull market. But when the environment is at its worst, Who can't start falling. Next, I will only look at four signals: Oil prices peak 10Y US Treasury yields fall back Semiconductors stop innovating at low levels BTC breaks through long-term oscillation range If these four things start happening in sequence, I think the theme of market trading will start from: 'Inflation repricing' Slowly switch to: Re pricing liquidity. At that time, Gold may stabilize first, Technology stocks are starting to recover, BTC may regain its maximum price elasticity. So now I won't rush to guess the bottom. I prefer to wait for the market to provide an answer on its own. The next round of real big trades is often not about buying the assets that have fallen the most. But rather, when the macro environment begins to shift, find the asset that doesn't fall first. At present, I believe BTC deserves to be placed at the forefront of this watchlist.