The CLARITY Act next week is the core variable that affects the BTC price trend, but the uncertainty is extremely high! How to translate Brothers and sisters, the biggest variable of BTC next week is not in the disk, but in Washington. Why? Because of the CLARITY Act! The CLARITY bill enters its final battle window: there are only about 15 legislative days left before the August 7th congressional recess. The Senate will hold a plenary vote during the week of July 20th or 27th, which is the last realistic opportunity to pass the bill in 2026. 1. Why is the Clarity Act important? This is not just another encryption bill, but legislation to address the core regulatory ownership issue: is an asset subject to SEC or CFTC supervision? Registration requirements, custody rules, listing decisions, and disclosure attitudes all extend downwards from this classification. Without it, it can only be resolved through law enforcement litigation. The House of Representatives has passed 294-134, the Senate Banking Committee has advanced 15-9, the GENIUS Act has been signed into law, and only the CLARITY Act is stuck at the finish line. 2. Why did the probability drop from 74% to 31-35%? The core obstacle is the moral clause. The Democratic Party demands a ban on the President, Vice President, members of Congress, and their immediate family members from holding cryptocurrency assets for profit during their term of office. The merged draft has removed this clause: because the Trump family disclosed over $1.4 billion in cryptocurrency related income. Gillibrand has made it clear that without ethical clauses, there can be no Democratic votes. Murphy, Van Hollen, and Warren have officially joined the opposition camp. Mathematical problem: To pass the 60 vote threshold to terminate the debate in the Senate with 53 Republican seats, at least 7 Democrats need to defect. At present, the only clear supporters are Gallego and Alsobrooks: and both have stated that this is only conditional support, not a final commitment. The time window is closed: August 7th is a mandatory deadline. Missing this window may drag on until 2027, as the November midterm elections will fill the agenda. Lummis warns: August has not passed, the next opportunity will be in 2030. 3. CLARITY Clear Act: Two Scenarios for BTC Prices If the bill is passed, BTC may impact $68000-70000. The logic is simple, the commodity identity of BTC is written into written law, the institutional compliance path is completely opened up, and trillions of dollars of institutional capital are given entry basis. This is not only a positive sentiment, but also a fundamental change at the institutional level. If the bill fails or drags on until 2027, BTC may fall back to 62000-63000 or even lower. Expectations have fallen through, and the market is facing a long-term repricing of regulatory uncertainty. BTC rebounded from 62.8K to 64.8K, with some expectations that pricing may advance this week. If the delay or failure is confirmed, this premium is likely to be released. At present, the probability of going long is still low, and the risk of going long is greater than that of going short. If the text can be released this week, the probability may rebound, but the current market pricing for this may be too optimistic. Let the Senate produce the results first, let the quantitative K-line confirm the direction first, and then we can proceed. Bitcoin BTC 3D Integrated Trading Analysis CLARITY Act