mignolet|7月 19, 2026 12:33
I have consistently emphasized throughout this year that the market structure and transaction patterns have fundamentally changed since the approval of spot Bitcoin ETF.
Those changes are now clearly reflected in on-chain data, and they became especially evident at this cycle's peak.
In fact, this was one of the main reasons I decided to launch @ForeDex_Global
I want to continue emphasizing that metrics such as "MVRV" and "other Supply-related indicators" should no longer be interpreted simply by drawing horizontal threshold lines, as they were in previous cycles.
The reason is straightforward.
The underlying on-chain transaction patterns have fundamentally changed.
Soon, I'll explain why the traditional interpretation has limitations by introducing new data that reflects these structural changes.
Let me emphasize this once again:
The examples below represent just one of many structural changes, chosen simply because they are easy to understand.
Since the approval of spot Bitcoin ETF:
- One hundred trades can now be settled into a single on-chain transaction, and this settlement process occurs every day.
- Large single transactions of more than 10,000 BTC have become far less common. Instead, those transfers are often split into 300–500 smaller transactions and distributed across multiple exchanges.
Now imagine these changes continuing for more than two years.
It would actually be surprising if the distribution of on-chain data and the way we interpret it hadn't changed.
And remember, these are merely representative examples.
There are many other structural changes that are also influencing on-chain data.(mignolet)
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