星球日报|Jul 19, 2026 08:01
**[Citrini Analyst: The AI Era May Change Storage Cycle Logic, Chip Stock Decline Doesn't Necessarily Signal Industry Collapse]**
Odaily Planet Daily News - Citrini analyst Jukan published an analysis pointing out that the recent decline in storage chip stocks is not only influenced by leveraged funds closing positions but may also reflect the market's early pricing of pressure from future supply expansion. Even if the global storage shortage persists until 2027, most research institutions and industry observers still anticipate that supply-demand tensions will begin to ease in 2028.
With major storage manufacturers like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix announcing large-scale wafer fab expansion plans, the market may already be factoring in the impact of additional capacity release after 2028. A common rule in the traditional storage industry is that storage stock prices typically reflect peak storage prices about two quarters in advance. However, in the AI-driven new cycle, the market may price future supply-demand changes even earlier—perhaps three or even four quarters in advance.
The AI era could bring new changes, as the traditional storage cycle logic of "price drops leading to revenue declines" may not fully apply to the AI infrastructure market. Jukan stated that the key difference lies in the AI era's potential for "price declines driving demand growth," which could cushion the downward impact of storage price cycles. If this logic holds, future profit fluctuations for storage companies may be less pronounced than in past cycles, potentially supporting higher valuation levels.
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