看不懂的SOL
看不懂的SOL|7月 19, 2026 07:57
Are there many people with a score of 100? There are many Americans, but very few Chinese people 1/First, let's conclude that there are indeed very few people with a buying index of 100, but those who truly understand what they are buying may be less than 10%. Most people's tendency to follow the trend is much greater than their cognition. 2/You can see someone discussing QQ in any investment group you open But when asked: What is the largest historical drawdown of the Nasdaq 100? On average, how many years does it experience a sharp decline? How long does it take to recover from each sharp drop? Almost no one can answer. This is very strange. Would you buy a car without knowing its braking distance? Would you buy a stock without knowing its historical fluctuations? But many people buy the Nasdaq 100 because they hear it has been rising for a long time. I have compiled historical drawdown data for the Nasdaq 100. From 1985 to the present, there have been several truly tragic declines: Black Monday in 1987 fell by about 35%, the Internet foam in 2000-2002 fell by about 80%, the financial crisis in 2008 fell by about 45%, the epidemic situation in 2020 fell by about 30%, and the Internet foam fell by about 35% in 2022. What is the concept of 5/80%? You invest 1 million, it becomes 200000. Most people are scared to pee when they see this number. But the problem lies precisely here: they only saw the pullback and didn't see what happened after the pullback. 6/After the Internet foam, the Nasdaq 100 rose more than tenfold from the bottom. After the financial crisis, it increased more than eight times. After the sharp decline in 2020, it doubled in a year and a half. It fell by 35% in 2022 and reached a new high in 2023-2024. From 1985 to present, the annualized return of the Nasdaq 100 is approximately 12% -13%. What does this mean? One million, in thirty years, it may exceed 30 million instead of 3 million or 5 million. This return does not come from predictions or stock selection, but from long-term presence. 8/So what are the people with a score of 100 studying? Not studying when it will rise, but studying when to buy. When the market rises, there is no place for you; When the market falls, it's your opportunity. Over the past 30 years, the S&P 500 has experienced an average drawdown of over 20% every 4-5 years. Due to the concentration of technology stocks and greater volatility, the Nasdaq 100 will give you a decent buying opportunity every 3-5 years. People who truly understand indices are waiting for one thing: panic. Because panic is the biggest reward for long-term investors. When others are cutting meat, you add to the warehouse; When others cry, you smile. This is difficult because it is against humanity. My own approach is simple: hold 50% of the position in QQQM for the long term, without hesitation. Some of the money saved in daily life will also be bought. Many people underestimate this. They study individual stocks, candlesticks, and news every day, exhausted to the point where they can't beat the index. And I only do two things: being present for a long time and buying in panic. Why can the Nasdaq 100 continue to rise for a long time? Because it is not a fixed stock, it is a periodic survival of the fittest index. Back then, Cisco and Intel were not doing well, while Google, Apple, and Amazon took the top; Now Nvidia, Microsoft, and Tesla have also become the main players. The index itself undergoes metabolism. 14/What you are buying is not a specific company, you are buying the long-term growth of global technological innovation. As long as humans are inventing new things and companies are pursuing profits, the Nasdaq 100 has a long-term upward momentum. 15/So, are there many people who are buying 100? There will be more and more. But there are not many people who deserve this benefit. Because most people cannot withstand a 30% retracement, cannot understand the history of an 80% plunge, and cannot buy during a plunge. The cruelest aspect of index investment is that it is open to everyone, but only rewards those who are patient, knowledgeable, and disciplined. The money cannot be earned completely, but the awareness is not enough, and what is earned cannot be held back.
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