"How far are we from 'spring'? Glassnode officially shared some data — the realized profit and loss distribution of BTC transferred to exchanges by LTH/STH. It breaks down the inflow of tokens into exchanges into four categories based on 'who is selling and whether they are selling at a profit or loss,' and then looks at the respective proportions. Since this only tracks BTC transferred to exchange addresses, and transfers to exchanges from on-chain typically indicate stronger selling intent, this metric is closer to reflecting the real selling pressure structure compared to the overall network realized profit/loss. I think there are two key points here that provide significant reference value for determining the transition between bear and bull cycles. Looking at the black box in Figure 1, the realized losses of LTH transferring BTC to exchanges (light blue waveform) represent the increasing capitulation behavior of LTH. The realized profits of STH transferring BTC to exchanges (dark red waveform) represent the recovery of STH's profitability and the revival of market demand. The period between the peaks of these two waveforms marks the transition phase from bear to bull. If we break down these two data points separately, we get Figures 2 and 3. It's very clear that every bear market bottom is accompanied by LTH continuously transferring tokens to exchanges at a loss. When the proportion reaches its peak and starts to decline, the bear market is nearing its end. At this point, the proportion of STH transferring profitable BTC to exchanges suddenly rises sharply, indicating that the market can absorb a large amount of short-term profit-taking and restore its 'blood-making' ability (profitability). This is a typical characteristic of a bull market kickoff. Now, looking at the current situation, the data in Figure 3 hasn't shown any movement yet, but the data in Figure 2 has already surpassed historical highs, with the proportion of LTH transferring BTC to exchanges at a realized loss reaching a staggering 67%! Is this the 'peak' of this cycle? We don't know for sure, but one thing is almost certain: LTH's realized losses can't go on forever. Personally, I believe we are infinitely close to, or even already within, the bear market bottom range. Next, we just need to wait for the data in Figure 3 to start declining and the data in Figure 2 to begin rising — then spring will be here..." #Crypto #BTC #Glassnode #BearToBull #MarketAnalysis