Phyrex|Jul 18, 2026 19:40
Today, a lot of friends left me messages saying oil prices are still rising and asking if they should cut losses on their shorts. My personal view has always been consistent: at the very least, keep a margin of $100, and then decide based on your own financial situation whether you can continue shorting at the highs or just maintain your position. At least, that’s what I’m doing. The main reason for the rise in oil prices is the conflict between the U.S. and Iran, which everyone knows about.
But the core of the conflict is the Strait of Hormuz. A blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would lead to global inflation, not just in the U.S., but worldwide, including China. Looking at historical data, there have been periods of high oil prices before, but they never lasted long. From any perspective, blocking the Strait of Hormuz is essentially going against the entire world.
The market has been dealing with the Strait of Hormuz blockade for three months now. I believe the international community’s tolerance for Iran is very limited. The likelihood of oil prices staying high for the long term is very low. Instead, oil prices returning to their normal levels is the real norm. So, the most important thing when shorting WTI and Brent is to have enough margin and enough patience.
Currently, my account is also in a floating loss, but I’ve kept my margin above $100 to avoid liquidation due to unexpected events. And as the conflict continues to escalate, I’ll keep increasing my margin, up to around $120.
bitcoin:native has been performing really well over the past two days, but who knows how long it’ll last.
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