小龙先生|7月 18, 2026 18:37
3D Integrated Trading AI analyzes and predicts the market bottom price range, time window, and probability distribution for this bear market as follows
Most likely scenario for Bitcoin's next path:
The current rebound from 62,538 is an intermediate bounce (similar to the May 2022 rebound from 25,400 to 31,000), with a target of 66,000-68,000.
After the rebound ends, the next wave of decline will hit the true bear market bottom: the 45,000-54,000 range (0.618-0.66 Fib retracement), with the time window in October-November 2026 (consistent with the historical bear market average of 382 days).
Why is the bear market bottom at 45,000-54,000?
(1) 0.618 (47,620) is the most frequently touched deep retracement level in historical bear markets;
(2) Price/MA200 needs to reach -40% to -50% (currently only -12%), and 45,000-54,000 corresponds to a price/MA200 of about -35% to -45%;
(3) No macro catalysts strong enough to trigger a catastrophic drop have been observed;
Core principle of the 3D Integrated System: No preset assumptions, wait for signals.
The above is probability analysis; actual entry must be based on signals:
(1) A long signal at 62,538 has already appeared, so participating in the rebound now is possible (3-5% position);
(2) If a top signal appears at 66,000-68,000 (long upper shadow/high-level spinning top/volume-price divergence), short to 54,000-58,000;
(3) If a weekly-level bottom signal appears at 45,000-54,000 (volume contraction + price stabilization + consecutive bullish candles + strong gravitational level), that will be the final entry opportunity for this bear market.
Before signals appear, all predictions are just probabilities.
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