wu fan
wu fan|Jul 18, 2026 18:02
The market value of stocks and cash are completely different things. Leverage amplifies at least 10-20 times. A company earns 100 million a year, but its stock market value can go above 3 billion. Stock prices fluctuate with a leverage effect that's 30 times the company's cash inflow. The market value of a stock is essentially the discounted value of the company's cash flow for the next 30 years. If you buy 2x or 3x leveraged stock ETFs, you're essentially amplifying the company's performance fluctuations by 60-90 times. If you then use 10x leverage on that 3x ETF contract, you're looking at 600-900 times the performance fluctuations. Friends who play in the A-share market often can't handle a few consecutive limit-down days, saying they've lost 20-30% and freaking out about what to do. People who play leveraged ETFs see fluctuations starting at 50%. Those who trade contracts experience fluctuations of 90-1000%. Leverage is one of those things— the longer you play, the bigger you'll go. If someone has never used leverage, I would tell them that they're in the best possible state right now. Never use it, ever. If someone has already started using leverage, I would still advise them not to use it. But if they insist on using it, then I would give them optimization advice. At the very least, they need to implement strict risk controls on allocation ratios. Don't go all-in and lose everything in one move.
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