加密前线(糖哥)
加密前线(糖哥)|Jul 17, 2026 12:15
Daily Market Interpretation - BTC (Key) A friend said: Recently, due to a lack of faith, let me analyze a wave from a more macro perspective of the big cycle, OK, Script arrangement! From the perspective of the overall trend, the market is still on the bearish side of the bearish trend, and the general direction is still downward. There was a 3-month interval between the first day's horizontal decline, which reached its low point on November 18th of last year, and the second day's horizontal decline, which reached its low point on February 6th; Just as there was a three-month interval between the low point on February 6th and the drop below on June 1st. At present, although the price is close to the level of the second downtrend sideways, it belongs to two ranges and has already reached the category of the third downtrend sideways, and cannot be confused. The difference is that the first downtrend and the second downtrend are the first downtrend followed by the second downtrend; The third main force of the downward sideways trend is likely to adopt a pattern of long sideways first, then sharp downward, and then rapid upward in order to prevent retail investors from rushing to raise funds. They will layout the trend in a "head, shoulder, and bottom" form, and then make follow-up plans depending on the situation. No matter how the K-line shape changes, the position corresponding to this low point can refer to the 50920-48220 area (with a slow decline starting at 53480). This area can be held for a long time, and the later the time, the higher it can be appropriately moved up (if it falls after completing this range, the ultimate position for this round will be between 33000 and 35000). But in the event that the sideways trading time does not meet the standard or opportunities do not arise, it will not come down directly in the short term. When can it be achieved without significant negative factors? Starting from Children's Day, approximately 3-4 months later. If we regain control of the 70000 mark midway, the above argument will need to be reassessed, and the corresponding high point in the range will be 77669 We have the corresponding points, directions, and time for the major level, so you can adjust it yourself. Next, let's take a look at the current trend of the minor level: In the horizontal period before a significant downward trend occurs in the major level, there will be a 20% amplitude space for us to play. The upper track is 69412 and the lower track is 58169. The current price will move regularly between these two points according to the specific structure of the minor level, and we only need to operate step by step. From the intraday trend, the rebound after the 1H level retracement of the short-term support of 62862 is still ongoing. The nature of this rebound belongs to the oversold rebound nature of the bear side, with limited sustainability and space. It can take profits on its own. During the retracement process, the support of 63038-62862 is still present, and a slow decline can be fast in and out once, and then done again near 62461. If it falls below 61472, the "Golden Spider" form of the previous 4H level will completely break. There is too much information to write, I cannot list them all. I have included the main ones. Due to time constraints, I would like to summarize today's sub level points: Radical support 62461~62301 (fast in, fast out) Short term support 61251~60526 (fast in and fast out) Short term resistance 63569~63812 (for reference, cautious operation) Backracing suppression 64340~64680 (can be hung on the disk) For other high-level points, please refer back to the previous article or today's main text. This type of long article may be difficult for beginners or readers without a foundation to understand, but it is only the tip of the iceberg that I want to express. BTC
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