Pre-market dip in US stocks, and Bitcoin is also down Let’s talk about current positions and thoughts: Previously went long on Micron at 905, didn’t sell at 1,030, exited at 920. Still holding the long position on SPCX on Binance, and haven’t sold the spot holdings either. Currently at an unrealized loss. But the liquidity in US stocks is still decent, so not too worried—just holding for now. The long positions were small to begin with. Shorted WTI crude oil at 76.2, now it’s around 80. This unrealized loss doesn’t bother me much either. Even though there’s still tension between the US and Iran recently, oil price fluctuations have been manageable, no major spikes. Anyway, my liquidation price is set above 100. Just waiting patiently, plus the fees are pretty reasonable. Honestly, the key is still Trump—whether he can quickly de-escalate geopolitics or at least say something to boost US stocks. Also holding USD1 positions to earn some WLFI yield. That’s the current situation for now. The next few months—July, August, and September—are going to be critical. Halfway through this month, oil prices haven’t risen much, still hovering around 80. As long as there’s no further escalation in geopolitics and oil prices don’t spike (like shooting past 85 or higher), inflation expectations won’t rise, and rate hike expectations will continue to fade, which would then boost rate cut expectations. This would be a nice confidence boost for risk markets (US stocks + Bitcoin). Overall, it still comes down to oil prices and macro policies. The chain of events would be: geopolitical escalation → oil price surge → inflation expectations rise (CPI looks bad) → rate hike expectations rise → risk markets under pressure. If the second half of the year really follows this script, it’s going to be tough for everyone. But if oil prices stay low this month and into August, rate hike expectations will fade. Even if rate cuts don’t get fast-tracked, at least no more rate hikes means less harm to risk markets, right? DYOR, not financial advice