深潮TechFlow
深潮TechFlow|Jul 17, 2026 06:33
[JPMorgan: Deleveraging Only Partially Completed, U.S. Stocks May Face Volatility for Another Three Months] According to Deep Tide TechFlow, citing research from Tide Research, JPMorgan's July 15 capital flow report indicates that the deleveraging process initiated in June is still ongoing. Leveraged ETFs, options, and margin accounts still have room for compression, and U.S. stocks face short-term pressure. Since the June peak, leveraged storage ETF volumes have shrunk by 34%, and the total market leveraged ETF volume has decreased by 13%. Leveraged products exhibit 'convexity decay' in their structure: they continuously deplete their own scale during range-bound volatility, requiring approximately three more months of fluctuations to return to pre-April levels. Retail investors' call option buying volume has declined from its June 5 peak but remains far from historical lows; margin account leverage is still at levels comparable to the peaks of late 2021 and mid-2018. Hedge fund leverage has retreated from its historical high in June, and semiconductor positions are being reduced. Risk parity fund leverage has returned to normal levels. From a medium- to long-term perspective, long-term capital from retail investors, CTAs, sovereign funds, and others continues to provide net demand support, with annual net equity demand estimated at approximately $275 billion. JPMorgan believes that short-term volatility may represent the tail end of deleveraging rather than a signal of fundamental deterioration.
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