Why is Nagi becoming more and more like the 'calm before a storm'? Recently, many people have been watching the CPI and PPI cool down, believing that interest rate cuts are coming soon and that the US stock market should continue to rise. But if it's really that simple, why hasn't Nasdaq been able to break new highs despite the continuous emergence of positive news? Why have top tier investors such as Buffett, Drunken Miller, Soros funds, Bridgewater, etc. increased their cash ratios to varying degrees over the past year? From a technical perspective, Nasdaq has already shown a very typical top characteristic. The main uptrend since the April low has ended, and after reaching a stage high in June, the high continued to decline, forming a downward pressure line. However, the index has consistently fluctuated at a high level, which means that the market is not accelerating its rise, but engaging in chip exchange. Buffett never bets on a crash, he just feels that the current market's risk reward ratio is not cost-effective. Berkshire Hathaway's cash scale has maintained a historical high for a long time because valuation and risk are no longer matched. This is also the most easily overlooked aspect of the market. The real danger is never when the economy is at its worst, but when the economy looks good but the valuation has already overdrawn growth in the coming years. When everyone believes that AI will change the world, prices often already reflect the most optimistic scenario in advance. In history, whether it is the Internet, railways or new energy, every great revolution is true, but the foam is also true. Looking beyond the international situation: The Middle East conflict has not completely ended. The Russia Ukraine issue has become a long-term issue. The global supply chain restructuring is still ongoing. The scale of US debt continued to hit a new high. The real key is that the US economy is showing signs of slowing down, and if employment, consumption, and corporate profits weaken simultaneously in the future. So interest rate cuts will no longer be a good thing, but will become a confirmation signal of economic recession. Most bear markets in history did not die from interest rate hikes, but from the beginning of the interest rate cutting cycle. The current Nasdaq has entered a stage where the rise relies on emotions and risks accumulate over time. The most dangerous time for the market is not when negative factors are flying everywhere, but when all the positive factors are already on the table, but when prices continue to rise steadily. For BTC, this may be the biggest variable in the next six months. If the Nasdaq continues to break through and risk appetite expands, BTC has a chance to usher in the last round of liquidity market. But if the Nasdaq completes its top structure and enters a mid-term adjustment, BTC is likely to find it difficult to stand alone. Because nowadays it is no longer just digital gold but an amplifier of global liquidity.