**[Bitunix Analyst: Federal Reserve Hawkish Signals Resonate with Middle Eastern Energy Risks, Global Capital Costs Still Face Upward Pressure]** BlockBeats News, July 17 — The ongoing escalation of U.S.-Iran tensions has seen U.S. forces further targeting Iranian transportation and military supply facilities, while Iran has threatened that normal navigation through the Strait of Hormuz will not resume and has instructed Houthi forces to prepare to blockade the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. This creates a scenario where two critical global energy shipping chokepoints are simultaneously under pressure. Although the White House has stated that Iran still hopes to reach an agreement with the U.S., the simultaneous escalation of battlefield activity and diplomatic negotiations suggests that both sides are using military pressure to gain leverage in talks rather than genuinely reducing the risk of conflict. What truly warrants market attention is not just the short-term fluctuations in oil prices but the fact that the global energy supply chain is accelerating its restructuring. Chevron's investment in Iraqi oil fields, Gulf nations planning new oil pipelines, and various countries speeding up the establishment of alternative transportation routes all reflect that the energy market has begun treating the "Hormuz risk normalization" as a long-term premise. This implies that future energy costs may remain elevated, and even if some shipping routes are restored, it will be difficult to completely eliminate the supply security premium. On the other hand, while U.S. retail sales in June slightly missed expectations, core consumption excluding energy factors remains robust, and initial jobless claims have dropped to a nearly two-month low, indicating resilience in U.S. domestic demand and employment. This suggests that the U.S. economy has not yet shown signs sufficient to force the Federal Reserve to pivot toward easing. More importantly, multiple Federal Reserve officials have reiterated that one month of cooling inflation is insufficient to prove that price pressures have been alleviated. Logan publicly supported moderate rate hikes, while Schmid and Vice Chair Jefferson simultaneously warned that if energy prices drive inflation higher again, policy tightening may resume. The market has recently lowered rate hike expectations due to cooling CPI and PPI data, but the Federal Reserve is focused on inflation risks over the next several quarters rather than single-month data. From a market perspective, the biggest contradiction currently lies in financial markets betting on policy remaining unchanged, while energy supply risks, capital demand driven by AI investments, and still-resilient U.S. consumption collectively create conditions for inflation to reaccelerate. If energy risks continue to expand, the divergence between the Federal Reserve and market expectations regarding the interest rate path could further widen, and global risk assets will continue to face a pricing environment characterized by high capital costs and high volatility.