Looking at Binance's net transfer data, the current market sentiment is highly divided, with significant disagreements. Two groups of whales have been operating in opposite directions. Group A: Single transfers over 10M, primarily inflows; Group B: Single transfers between 1-10M, primarily outflows. These two forces are counterbalancing each other, with sharp differences. When Group A is stronger, BTC prices weaken; when Group B is stronger, prices stabilize (or rebound). Currently, Group B has a slight edge, which supports a weak rebound logic. At the same time, the BTC balance on exchanges has remained at a relatively high level from 7/13 to 7/15, without any significant decline. This is completely different from the 2/25-3/6 period, where the rebound path was accompanied by a noticeable drop in balances. From this, it’s clear that overall demand is not particularly strong at the moment, or rather, the demand side has not formed an overwhelming advantage over the supply side. This situation doesn’t impact cycle traders much, but for short-term traders, it’s hellishly difficult and not suitable for average investors.