The price is fluctuating, but the real flow of funds off-chain never lies. BTC’s true recovery is just waiting for that crucial tailwind! When evaluating the real fund flows of Bitcoin ETFs, BlackRock (IBIT) and Fidelity (FBTC) are always the clearest and purest “isolated signals.” As the two largest financial entities in the market, their moves directly represent the genuine attitudes of traditional Wall Street giants. 1. 30-Day Moving Average Under Pressure: Institutional selling pressure hits a new phase high Moving average breached: Currently, the 30-day simple moving average (SMA) for IBIT and FBTC is in a clear net outflow zone, with recent daily net outflow pressure ranging from hundreds to thousands of BTC. Sustained pressure: From June to early July, the two ETFs recorded significant net outflows. Even compared to the adjustment period in 2025, the current selling pressure is notably pronounced. Shift in attitude: This indicates that the current adjustment is not just a short-term portfolio rebalancing but rather a proactive defensive retreat by big money in the face of macro uncertainties (e.g., geopolitical conflicts, oil price fluctuations). 2. Speculative Funds Retreat: Trading volume collapses Adding to the market’s current lack of rebound momentum is the weakening liquidity both on-chain and within trading channels: Shrinking volume: Daily spot trading activity on exchanges has fallen from previous highs and is now hovering at relatively low levels, with short-term speculative enthusiasm clearly cooling off. Retail exit: Amid selling pressure, short-term speculative funds (Speculators) and high-frequency hot money have completed partial risk-averse withdrawals, leaving the market lacking sufficient turnover depth at lower levels. 3. Where’s the breaking point? Waiting for a reversal in “directional conviction” With the directional conviction and activity levels of the two benchmark ETFs (IBIT & FBTC) still subdued, any technical indicator recovery is highly likely to become a bull trap. Recovery prerequisites: For Bitcoin to achieve a truly sustainable and disruptive trend recovery, we must see sustained and decisive upward turns in the 30-day moving average data for IBIT and FBTC. Old money’s calculation: Wall Street is currently waiting for clearer macro signals (e.g., the July 14 CPI release, Federal Reserve policy decisions). Before the tailwind arrives, they prefer to remain cautious at lower levels and won’t blindly chase high positions. Stock game: Without the speculative funds driving momentum, the current market reflects more of a tug-of-war between institutional stock positions, which explains why bulls have struggled to organize any meaningful consecutive breakthroughs recently. BTC IBIT FBTC Crypto