degentrading|Jul 16, 2026 20:49
EOD recap - 17 Jul 26
Brutal price action over in NY trading. Besides momentum semis melting down (NVDA was unscathed), we also had a late session weakness in the hyperscaler complex. This stands out to me because it is an indication that the turmoil in semis is spilling out.
Index vol has been constrained because of the rotations underneath the various sectors. However, should the semi contagion start spiralling out to other sectors, we can see correlations tend to 1. Index puts are still cheap and i think there is good value to add those to hedge your book.
Next, on memory - the price action has been abyssmal. Like what i mentioned in my pre mkt thoughts to not bid the 1500s retest this time, we saw SNDK melt through those levels. However, the selling was contained and we did not see any cascades. While i am waiting for a cascade and a retest of the 1200-1300 zone to deploy, it is also likely that funds with excess cash already deploying - hence explaining the lack of a cascade thus far.
In Neoclouds, we saw NBIS leading the drawdown as retail positioning probably got cleansed today in the nuke. Most names are down 5-10% vs NBIS 13%.
Tomorrow, KR markets are closed. It will also be the last trading day of a week before we go into hyperscaler earnings zone.
In review, this sell off in momentum has became one of the most significant moves in factor since the GFC, just to illustrate the scale and velocity of the sell off. In KR, due to the market being dominated by memory mainly, the index is already down 30%. GS reports that 1% of retail accounts are fully liquidated with 3% receiving margin calls. Absolutely brutal moves, particularly with the leverage loop juicing on both sides.
Good luck!(degentrading)
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