Serenity Sivers can support hundreds of millions of dollars in gross profit with a small allocation of production capacity, and increasing CPO volume may further open up growth opportunities Odaily Planet Daily News: "White haired Stock God" Serenity analyzed in an article that if Sivers obtains about 10% wafer production capacity quota from foundry Win Semi through a light asset model, under the assumption of 65% yield and $50 to $75 ASP, its annual revenue from optical array products can reach $341 million to $512 million. According to the management's gross profit margin target of 50% to 60% or more, the corresponding annual gross profit is approximately $205 million to $307 million. Based on Sivers' current market value of approximately $1.1 billion, its market value corresponds to a gross profit multiple of only about 3.6 to 5.4 times in the above scenario; If the production capacity quota is increased to 15%, the annual gross profit is expected to increase to 307 million to 461 million US dollars, and the corresponding valuation will further decrease to 2.4 to 3.6 times. Serenity pointed out that Sivers CEO has previously confirmed that the company is collaborating with more wafer fabs to expand production capacity, and since 2024, the company's supply chain certification scope has continued to expand. With the accelerated development of the co packaged optics (CPO) market, future revenue guidance and capacity planning may be further adjusted upwards. On the demand side, the supply of continuous wave lasers (CW) remains tight. Lumentum's financial report shows that the company has started purchasing CW lasers from the public market to fulfill EML orders; TrendForce data shows that AMD is locking in relevant production capacity through long-term agreements. Serenity believes that as Sivers advances mass production with partners such as GlobalFoundries, Jabil, Ayar Labs, POET, O-Net, any newly added and certified independent production capacity could quickly be absorbed by the market. In addition, Morgan Stanley recently reported that Sivers, with a market value of approximately $1.1 billion, has been listed as one of the three core manufacturers in the CPO laser field, alongside Coherent and Lumentum, which have a market value of over $55 billion. Serenity believes that in addition to its existing business, Sivers may expand TAM through mergers and acquisitions in the future after going public on NASDAQ, replicating Lumentum's acquisition of Cloud Light and entering the complete optical module and optical engine market development path.