At this node of Changxin Technology's subscription, one ticket can affect the entire sector, which is quite representative. My mom has already subscribed, I really hope she can win! It is said that Zhongyi can earn 20000 yuan! Why is Changxin Technology so popular? Today, with the help of my Q&A on EasyLaw, I will provide a deep analysis of ecological niche and its causes and consequences. I have written it in a very professional and detailed manner! I have posted the key points for everyone to learn from! Changxin's popularity is not simply a result of hype, but the resonance of three dimensions: it fills a "vacuum ecological niche" and appears in an excellent time window with an almost irreplaceable domestic breakthrough story. 1、 Ecological niche: filling a 30-year vacuum DRAM (Dynamic Random Access Memory) is the "working memory" of all computing devices, and mobile phones, computers, servers, and AI computing power all rely on it without exception. But the competitive landscape of this market is one of the most extreme oligopolistic structures in the history of technology. Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron, three Korean American companies, together hold over 95% of the global market share, leaving little room for other players to survive outside of the three. This is not accidental. Through decades of periodic price war, the three giants eliminated all the new competitors they tried to enter one by one - Japan DRAM Industry, Germany Qimonda, and Taiwan, China Lijing. None of them survived. Entering this industry means that you have to endure the price slaughter launched by competitors in the face of losses, while also continuously investing billions of R&D capital to catch up with technology. Most challengers die in this long darkness. The share of Chinese Mainland in this market has been zero for a long time. At the same time, China spends over $200 billion annually on importing storage chips, making it the world's largest consumer market, but it relies entirely on three foreign companies for supply. This structural void is of great strategic significance in the context of increasingly fierce trade competition. Changxin filled this hole exactly. It is the first DRAM manufacturer in China and the fourth in the world. It has completed the full generation production of the first to fourth generation process technology platforms. Its core products DDR4, LPDDR4X, DDR5, and LPDDR5 have been supplied in bulk to Xiaomi OPPO、vivo、 Mainstream mobile phone manufacturers such as Transsion. It is not a sample made by a research institute, but an industrial enterprise that is truly mass-produced, has customers, and generates revenue. After countless instances of trust deficits left by domestic chip "PPT companies", this is truly scarce in the market. 2、 Cause: After ten years and thirty years, crossing the 'valley of life and death' The entry barriers to the DRAM industry are not only technological, but also capital scale and time. The amortization of fixed costs in the early stages of a new factory is extremely heavy, and it is necessary to ramp up production capacity to a sufficient scale in order to dilute unit costs. This process has a name in the industry called the "valley of life and death" - before the scale is enough, losses are inevitable, and if it cannot be sustained, it will die. Changxin's loss period is shocking. In 2022, the loss was 8.3 billion yuan, in 2023 it was 16.3 billion yuan, in 2024 it was 7.1 billion yuan, and the cumulative loss over three years exceeded 30 billion yuan. As of mid-2025, the cumulative loss has reached 40.8 billion yuan. This is not a business failure, but a structural cost in the DRAM industry, and Samsung followed the same path when building the factory. It can survive by two things. The first is the continuous infusion of national strategic capital - large funds and Hefei state-owned assets have endured a period of losses that pure commercial logic cannot bear, giving Changxin time. The second is the "leapfrog R&D" strategy - instead of climbing the slope step by step from the previous generation of technology, but catching up with multiple technological generations in parallel, with a cumulative R&D investment of 15.3 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024, compressing the ten-year catch-up cycle that should have been needed. 2025 is a turning point year. The DRAM price cycle hit bottom and reversed, and Changxin's economies of scale were simultaneously released. The annual revenue is expected to reach 55 to 58 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 130%; The net profit is expected to turn from a sustained huge loss to a profit of approximately 2 to 3.5 billion yuan. Entering 2026, this reversal curve becomes even steeper - expected revenue of 110 to 120 billion yuan in the first half of the year, with a year-on-year growth of over 600%; Expected net profit attributable to the parent company is between 50 and 57 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of over 2000%. From 'losing billions of dollars annually' to 'earning 50 billion dollars in six months', this is an extremely rare performance reversal curve. The market never remains indifferent to such stories. 3、 Consequence: Listing itself is a systemic event For Changxin itself, the significance of this IPO goes far beyond fundraising itself. The original plan was to raise 29.5 billion yuan, but it eventually exceeded the fundraising limit to 57.9-66.6 billion yuan, nearly doubling the capital ammunition. This means that the pace of expansion will significantly accelerate, with a target monthly production capacity of 400000 pieces by 2026 and even faster in the future. As the scale continues to expand, Changxin's global DRAM market share will move from the current about 4% to a higher target, and the pricing power of the three giants will face real challenges. For the A-share market, Changxin's listing has created a new valuation anchor. Its issuance market value is about 580 billion yuan, and the institutional neutral expected market value after listing is in the range of 2 to 3 trillion yuan. This magnitude means that it will become one of the most important heavyweight stocks on the Science and Technology Innovation Board, and passive funds must be allocated accordingly. This also explains why there was an overall adjustment in the semiconductor sector yesterday (July 15th) - there was a large-scale siphon of new investment funds, and investors sold other semiconductor targets to switch positions and create a short-term stampede effect. For the industrial chain, Changxin's expansion path is the most direct source of orders for domestic semiconductor equipment and materials. Etching equipment, thin film deposition equipment, cleaning equipment, silicon wafers, memory interface chips, packaging substrates... Enterprises in this chain such as North Huachuang, Zhongwei Company, Lanqi Technology, and Shanghai Silicon Industry will continue to benefit from Changxin's capacity expansion. This is not a concept hype, it is a tangible purchase order logic. For geo technological competition, this is the most difficult to quantify but has the most profound impact. The existence of Changxin fundamentally changed the pricing strategies of the three giants in the Chinese market. When China has local suppliers, the premium space of Samsung, Hynix, and Micron will be compressed, and the bargaining power of Chinese terminal manufacturers will be enhanced. This is a structural redistribution of market power, not just a company's listing event. 4、 Why does it happen to be 'now' Timing is the last key to understanding the popularity of Changxin. In terms of industry prosperity, DRAM is currently in a super upward cycle. In the first quarter of 2026, the average price surged by about 90%, and continued to rise by 50-60% in the second quarter. Samsung has pushed for price increases three times this year. The root cause lies in the explosive demand for AI computing power, with the three major original manufacturers shifting a large amount of production capacity to HBM (high bandwidth storage). The supply of traditional DRAM has shrunk significantly, and the increase in new production capacity will not be able to increase until 2027 at the earliest. The tight balance between supply and demand will continue throughout 2026. In terms of company fundamentals, Changxin is standing at a turning point from loss to profit. From a historical huge loss of 40 billion to an expected profit of 50 billion in the first half of 2026, the dramatic tension of this story curve, combined with the industry's prosperity, forms a double click effect. At the policy level, the country's support for domestic substitution of semiconductors is unprecedented. Changxin's IPO review took only 165 days, setting a rare record for hard tech companies, and the policy will behind it is clear. In terms of asset scarcity, there are only four companies in the world that mass produce DRAM. Changxin is the first on the Science and Technology Innovation Board and the only pure DRAM target on the A-share market, with strong irreplaceability. If all five conditions are met simultaneously, the probability is extremely low. This is why the inquiry multiple is as high as 462 times, and why institutions give a market value expectation of 3 trillion yuan - not driven by foam, but the result of the resonance of scarcity premium and super cycle double click. Finally, risks cannot be ignored either DRAM is a strong cyclical industry, and its prosperity will not last forever. After the increase in new production capacity in 2027, cyclical pressure will reappear. The P/E ratio of the issuance is 308 times, far exceeding the industry average. The current pricing already includes strong optimistic expectations, and the volatility risk of overvalued targets cannot be underestimated. In terms of technological gap, Changxin is currently leading Samsung by about 1 to 2 technological generations, and is still in the catching up stage in high-end categories such as HBM. In addition, after the lock up period of large-scale strategic allocation, pressure to reduce holdings will gradually emerge. Changxin's story is true, but good stories also have good prices and bad prices. The above is an analysis and compilation based on public information, and does not constitute investment advice. If you are interested in easylaw analysis, you can register: https://(easylaw. com)/? sfrom=3001&key=1&sh=31&ch=1