TraderS | 缺德道人|Jul 16, 2026 11:07
Although SpaceX briefly dipped below its support level during trading yesterday, it managed to close above 135 by the end of the session.
If we’re looking at the best-case scenario, yesterday’s market action was likely a high-volume shakeout followed by a pre-event recovery—very deliberate and controlled moves.
Tonight’s market will probably stay in a narrow range, waiting for tomorrow’s rocket launch. If:
- Fully successful → Gap up to 140-146 on Friday
- Booster passes but satellite deployment has flaws → 137-140
- Booster fails again → 124-128
- Explosion during ascent → 118-124
- Launch delayed → Gradual decline to 133-136
If the best-case scenario plays out and SPCX rebounds to above 145 tomorrow, and further recovers to 155 before the earnings report, there could be one last window for a rally post-earnings.
Specifically, if the earnings report is released on 8/4, the next batch of shares unlocks on 8/6, leaving 8/5 as a sweet spot where positive earnings news coincides with the absence of unlocked shares. If someone wants to make a move, that day would be the perfect opportunity. Of course, this is all based on the most ideal scenario—how it actually plays out remains to be seen.
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