As the market gradually matures, it is difficult to have another knockoff season. At most, there will be a partial rebound, and the high-level knockoffs in your hands are far from being resolved! Many people don't like to hear this sentence because they still have a lot of knockoffs in their hands! You may still be waiting for a familiar script: BTC rises first, ETH makes up for it, and finally funds overflow, almost all the knockoffs take off together. This script was established in the past because the market had three conditions: sufficient incremental funds, sufficient number of tokens, and retail investors willing to pay for imagination. But now, all three conditions have changed. Firstly, ETFs have changed the funding path. In the past, when funds entered the cryptocurrency market, they gradually spread from BTC to ETH, public chains DeFi， Moving on to small market value knockoffs. Nowadays, a large amount of institutional funds come in through ETFs, buying BTC exposure instead of searching for hundredfold coins on the chain. The money enters the cryptocurrency market, but may not necessarily enter the counterfeit market. Secondly, there is a severe oversupply of counterfeit products. In the previous round, the market had more funds and fewer projects, but in this round, projects, tokens, L2, and Meme are increasing every day, while liquidity is being infinitely fragmented. What's even more troublesome is that a large number of projects adopt a "low circulation, high valuation" issuance model, and subsequent unlocking continuously creates selling pressure. In March 2026 alone, the market faced a token unlocking shock of approximately $6 billion. What you are waiting for may not necessarily be rotation, but also the exit liquidity of teams, institutions, and early investors. Thirdly, the pricing power of the market has changed. In the past, retail investors liked stories, and funds could quickly spread from one concept to the entire sector. Now, institutions value liquidity, regulatory certainty, real income, and exit channels more. So funds will be concentrated on BTC, ETH, SOL, and a few projects with users, cash flow, ETFs, or compliance expectations. This is not a comprehensive bull market, but a structural bull market. Fourthly, the market is not short of money, but money is not fully risky. The current total market value of stablecoins is still at a high level of about 310 billion US dollars, with a large amount of ammunition on the market, but without continuous expansion and increasing liquidity, it is difficult to support the simultaneous rise of thousands of tokens. So my judgment is that there will still be knockoff market trends in the future, but it is more likely to be localized outbreaks in a few tracks, a few leaders, and a few time windows. It could be the SOL ecosystem. It could be AI+Crypto. It could be Base, stablecoin RWA。 It could also be a Meme driven by a certain round of extreme emotions. But it is difficult to have a comprehensive shanzhai season where everything goes up, trapped stocks can be liberated, and junk coins can reach new highs. To make a real knockoff season come back, at least several signals need to appear simultaneously: BTC is trading sideways at high levels rather than continuously sucking blood; ETH/BTC trend strengthens; The supply of stablecoins continues to expand; Market trading volume spreads from top assets to small and medium-sized market values; Most altcoins are relatively stronger than BTC, rather than a few coins rising alone. Before these signals appear, don't announce the arrival of the knockoff season just because a coin has risen by 50%. It may just be a rotation, not a cycle. The most dangerous obsession of this round is believing that 'as long as I hold it long enough, the funds will always be my turn', and perhaps it will never be your turn again! The era of making money by buying knockoffs with closed eyes is gone forever!