[Viewpoint: CXMT Targets 11% DRAM Market Share by 2028, U.S. Equipment Restrictions Turn into Opportunity for Differentiated Catch-Up] BlockBeats News, July 16, Counterpoint Research Director Hwang Minsung pointed out that a 15% global DRAM market share is the baseline for CXMT's long-term survival—falling below this level could repeat the fate of Taiwanese DRAM manufacturers in 2008, who dropped to a 3% market share due to their inability to fund next-generation factory investments. Currently, CXMT's global DRAM bit shipment market share is approximately 9%, with a target to increase to 11% by 2028. The funds raised from this IPO will be allocated to next-generation G5 process technology, HBM3 high-bandwidth memory R&D, and capacity expansion. The company plans to increase its monthly production capacity from the current 320,000 wafers to 420,000 wafers by 2027, double it by 2030, and triple it by 2035. LPDDR5 and DDR5 are expected to account for approximately 75% of total output, and DRAM for PCs and servers has already begun shipping to global customers. Counterpoint outlined four key variables to watch post-IPO: the yield rate and revenue ramp-up progress of HBM mass production (benefiting from Huawei Ascend AI chip production expansion, with HBM revenue potential of approximately $2 billion by 2028); the ability to secure large-scale procurement contracts from global customers outside of China (Apple supply still dependent on approval); the risk of additional equipment export controls triggered by escalating trade conflicts; and the medium- to long-term ability to achieve 20% and 15% market share in terms of bits and revenue, respectively. Neil Shah noted that while U.S. equipment export restrictions pose constraints on CXMT, 'ironically, this may instead drive CXMT to surpass traditional giants in differentiated technological paths such as vertical channel transistors and wafer-to-wafer bonding, as the latter often delay technological innovation to protect returns on existing equipment investments.' [Original Link]