律动BlockBeats|7月 16, 2026 05:14
[Bernstein: TSMC's Q2 Revenue Reaches High End of Guidance, Advanced Node Demand Still Exceeds Capacity]
BlockBeats News, July 16 – Bernstein stated in its latest research report that TSMC's second-quarter revenue reached the high end of the company's guidance range and slightly exceeded market expectations, indicating that demand for advanced nodes and AI-related applications remains strong. The firm maintains an Outperform rating for TSMC, with a target price of NT$2,780 for Taiwan-listed shares and $430 for U.S.-listed ADRs. Based on the July 13 closing price of NT$2,440 for TSMC's Taiwan shares, the target price implies an upside potential of approximately 14%.
Bernstein expects investors to focus on three key topics during the upcoming earnings call: expansion plans, gross margin outlook, and the ramp-up of the N2 process. The firm projects TSMC's capital expenditures to reach $56 billion in 2026 and $68 billion in 2027. CoWoS monthly capacity is expected to reach 135,000 wafers by the end of 2026 and increase to 195,000 wafers by the end of 2027.
In terms of gross margins, Bernstein forecasts TSMC's gross margin to rise from approximately 60% last year to 65% in 2026, driving a year-over-year earnings per share (EPS) growth of about 50%, reaching NT$102.
The report also noted that due to the ongoing tight capacity for TSMC's advanced nodes, customer interest in Samsung Foundry and Intel Foundry is increasing. Samsung has reportedly raised prices for some new 4/5nm and 8nm customers by about 15% and is in discussions with Anthropic and Meta regarding potential 2nm AI chip projects. There are also market rumors that Intel Foundry may participate in Google's TPU-related projects.
However, Bernstein believes these developments will not pose a substantial short-term impact on TSMC's revenue. The firm stated that TSMC remains at least one generation ahead in technology nodes, has a better execution track record, larger scale, and continues to face demand for advanced nodes that significantly exceeds its available capacity. Even if Samsung or Intel secures some projects, it reflects more on TSMC's capacity constraints rather than a weakening of its competitive position.
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