Walsh is tough (hawkish) The first thing I do every day now is to summarize the latest fundamental developments from the previous day. In the current macro environment, which directly impacts asset fluctuations, fundamentals are the priority to understand, followed by technical analysis. This applies to crude oil, gold, $BTC, and U.S. stocks (ranked by priority of influence). In summary: The current fundamental impact is a mix of bullish and bearish factors. July remains in a favorable phase of low interest rate hike expectations, but rate hike expectations will reignite in mid-August, with September's rate hike expectations being higher and bearish. Therefore, July's market environment is one of choppy rebounds for $XAU and $BTC, not a strong one-sided trend. Avoid chasing bullish sentiment too aggressively, and don't overdo short positions either. Buying on dips is the best strategy. The July 30 FOMC meeting is expected to maintain rates unchanged, which is bullish. The only bearish factor right now is the escalation of U.S.-Iran tensions, which has led to rising crude oil prices. Although yesterday's 70-minute bombing didn't cause significant fluctuations in gold or oil prices and even had a limited direct impact, the risk of this situation hasn't been eliminated. On the contrary, if high oil prices persist without easing, it could reignite inflation expectations, offsetting the recent bullish effects of weak CPI and PPI data. Walsh has also delivered important bearish signals in his testimonies at both chambers of Congress over the past two days. Walsh is very "tough (hawkish)" : In both hearings, he consistently expressed zero tolerance for persistently high inflation, emphasized that the inflation task is not yet complete, and stated that CPI and other indicators are not the sole references. He also refused to comply with Trump's calls for rate cuts, indicating that the tail risk of rate hikes remains for this year. In conclusion, the current fundamentals are somewhat contradictory, but as time goes on, events will become clearer. As long as the U.S.-Iran conflict doesn't escalate further, oil prices don't continue to break higher, and inflation naturally subsides, everything will be fine! Otherwise, stagflation could restart, which would be bad for gold, crypto, and U.S. stocks. If you think this summary is helpful, give me a follow and stay tuned for more market analysis. #RiskWarning: This is just a personal opinion and does not constitute any investment advice.