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律动BlockBeats|Jul 16, 2026 02:03
**[Bank of America: U.S. Stocks Show Warning Signs Similar to the Dot-Com Bubble Era, "Shock Risk" Accumulating]** BlockBeats News, July 16 — Bank of America stated that the current U.S. stock market is exhibiting signals reminiscent of the dot-com bubble era. On Tuesday, the bank pointed out that the market is facing a new "shock risk" due to a recent divergence phenomenon worth noting: individual stock volatility is steadily rising, while overall market index volatility remains relatively stable, despite ongoing capital rotation within the tech sector. A report released in June by the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) revealed that the gap between the S&P 500 constituent stock volatility index (VIXEQ) and the VIX volatility index has widened to a historic high. VIXEQ measures the volatility of individual stocks within the S&P 500, while VIX is regarded as the "fear index" for gauging overall market volatility. As of Tuesday, VIXEQ stood at approximately 50 points, up about 46% year-to-date; in contrast, VIX was around 16 points, having risen only about 13% this year. Bank of America's global equity derivatives research team noted that similar divergence phenomena occurred before the dot-com bubble burst. Currently, the individual stock realized volatility indicator they track has returned to levels seen prior to the bubble's collapse. Analysts wrote: "The gap between individual stock and index volatility is approaching the extreme levels of the dot-com bubble era. The risk of market shocks is real." They emphasized that the persistently low index volatility is causing this historic divergence to continue expanding. If stock prices not only rise but valuations also further enter bubble territory, this divergence could even surpass the extreme levels of the dot-com bubble era. Additionally, Bank of America cautioned that U.S. stocks are entering a seasonally weaker performance phase. Historical data shows that the period from May to October is typically the weakest six months of the year for U.S. equities. [Original Link]
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