Citrini: Predicting a Global DRAM Shortfall of 28.7EB by 2030, Memory Market May Enter a Prolonged Supply-Demand Tension Cycle

BlockBeats News, July 16 — Market research firm Citrini Research has released its latest forecast, predicting that by 2030, the global DRAM market will still face a significant supply shortfall, estimated at 28.7EB, accounting for approximately 18% of total demand for that year. This is compared to the current global production capacity of around 40EB. According to data shared by Citrini researcher Zephyr, global DRAM (including HBM) demand in 2030 is expected to reach 157.5EB, while supply capacity will only be around 128.8EB. Among these, standard DRAM will be the largest bottleneck, with estimated annual supply at approximately 91EB, while demand will soar to 120EB, causing the shortfall ratio to expand from the current 18% to roughly 25%. The report emphasizes that even with Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron, and Chinese manufacturers continuing to expand production, the additional capacity may still be rapidly absorbed by surging AI demand. The core driver of the supply-demand imbalance lies in the explosion of AI infrastructure, as large-scale model training and inference, along with HBM becoming the core of AI accelerators, simultaneously boost traditional server DRAM demand. Under tight equilibrium, the average selling price (ASP) of DRAM may remain elevated for an extended period, projected to range between $1.5–2 per Gb. Memory costs for servers, PCs, and consumer electronics are expected to remain under pressure.