Murphy
Murphy|7月 16, 2026 01:30
Looking back, the judgment on July 9 was correct—the rebound indeed hasn’t ended, but it hasn’t shown much strength either. During this period, BTC has tested the '<1-month short-term cost line (red line)' three times. This repeated tug-of-war indicates there’s still upward pressure, which also reflects a lack of confidence among short-term investors. However, this time (July 14), it finally seems like there’s a chance of breaking through. Have you guys noticed something recently? BTC seems less sensitive to bearish news but very responsive to bullish news. For example, MicroStrategy selling a large amount of BTC, the sharp drop in U.S. AI tech stocks, the resurgence of U.S.-Iran tensions... Any one of these in the past would’ve been enough to push BTC back below 60k, but this time it didn’t happen. Instead, after the CPI data was released, it immediately bounced back. So, considering all the factors, I personally don’t think 65k is the end of this rebound. The real resistance level should be somewhere between 68k-70k. At the same time, the current spot market CVD on major exchanges like Binance and Coinbase is still below the 90-day median. So, I’m still maintaining the view that this is a weak ‘rebound’ rather than a full ‘reversal.’
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