The latest on-chain data for Bitcoin reveals the most critical supply-demand conflict right now: ETF funds are continuously flowing out, old whales are leaving, and new whales are stepping in! Whales holding 100-1,000 BTC sold 67,000 BTC (around $4.3 billion) in a single day—the largest single-day sell-off by this group since February. New whale wallets are accumulating, consistently increasing their holdings. The chips are shifting from old whales to new whales. On July 13, ETF institutions saw a single-day net outflow of $425 million, reversing sharply after weekly inflows. Long-term holders (LTH) are surrendering, with daily loss peaks hitting $280 million—the highest since December 2022. What does a $4.3 billion whale sell-off mean? CryptoQuant data shows that the group holding 100-1,000 BTC transferred up to $4.3 billion in a single day. During the same period, the total inflow of funds into all ETF products was only 1/22 of the whale outflow. This is an extremely severe supply-demand imbalance signal. But the market hasn’t crashed. Why? Because new whale wallets are still accumulating, and market chips are gradually shifting from old whales to a new generation of large holders. Bitwise data shows that individual investors hold 66.1% of the BTC supply—retail investors are the true driving force behind pricing. ETF warning signs: · Single-day net outflow of approximately $424.7 million on July 13; · Glassnode tracking shows ETF 30-day net flows have turned negative; · Daily trading volume is down about 80% compared to the peak in October 2025. Social media hype hits rock bottom: Santiment data shows that crypto discussion volume on major social platforms has dropped to the second-lowest level since October 2024. Declining retail attention usually means less market congestion but also indicates a lack of new buying momentum. Key takeaways: · Old whales are leaving ($4.3 billion sell-off), new whales are stepping in (continuous accumulation)—two forces are swapping positions. · ETFs remain the biggest uncertainty. Single-day inflows aren’t enough to confirm a reversal, but single-day outflows can suppress prices. The critical question now: Can new buyers and new whales fully absorb the supply released by old whales and ETF institutions? So, some retail investors and big-name influencers believe the $60K range is the bottom of this bear market. ETF institutions and old whales don’t believe this is the bottom—they’re running first. I don’t believe it either