TraderS | 缺德道人|Jul 15, 2026 16:32
At present, the ultimate direction of the market's game on whether to raise or lower interest rates is the FOMC meeting on September 15-16. Prior to this, there are multiple data points:
July Non Farm Day: August 7th
July CPI: August 12th
July PCE: August 26th
August Non Farm Day: September 4th
August PPI: September 10th
August CPI: September 11th
In the data, there is also Jackson Hole Walsh's debut at the end of August (you may still remember Powell's performance last year)
This way, Walsh will have enough time, data, and occasion to discuss interest rates
The current market pricing for interest rates is:
Maintain interest rate in July: 90.0%
Maintain the current range after September: 49.2%
25bp increase after September: 46.3%
50bp increase after September: 4.5%
Coincidentally maintaining the September forecast at a delicate balance point, Walsh's strategy of playing with an external eagle and an internal pigeon has indeed left the market unsure of its direction. So the market is likely to choose a cautious path, which means stopping, which has poured cold water on the targets that are already at the top. When all the buying orders have been exhausted and all the reinforcements have entered the market, it is impossible for the market to rise again.
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