XinGPT🐶
XinGPT🐶|7月 15, 2026 14:40
Zhenbao Technology, SpaceX, and SK Hynix have different markets, but share the same rhythm. The first common feature is high opening. The issue price of popular IPOs is usually conservative, and after the stock is listed, it will be re priced based on the first transaction. Zhenbao Technology opened from 44.56 yuan to 448 yuan, SpaceX opened from 135 yuan to 150 yuan, and SK Hynix ADS opened from 149 yuan to 170 yuan. Although the magnitude is different, all three confirm the scarcity premium that the market is willing to pay with a price significantly higher than the issue price. After a high opening, it usually does not rise all the way, but enters a period of volume trading. Early adopters took profits and missed out on the allocation of funds, taking advantage of the volatility to enter the market. As a result, prices are prone to retreat first, leading to a second period of market trend. Zhenbao Technology fell to 388.66 yuan in the morning and closed at 585 yuan in the afternoon; SpaceX surged to $176.52 before briefly giving up, and then rose again to $225.64; SK Hynix fell 9.3% on the second day, but rebounded 27.3% on the third day. The real similarity among the three is that after the first large-scale fluctuation, prices have all strengthened again. After the second rally, the market began to digest the valuation. Short term funds ebb and trading volume decreases, and prices will gradually return to a position that can be supported by profits. SpaceX later fell back to $136.08, almost returning to its issue price of $135; SK Hynix continues to experience significant bidirectional fluctuations. At this stage, there may not be a gradual decline every day, but common signals are a decrease in rebound height, reduced trading volume, and market heat no longer sufficient to support the original premium. Returning to CXMT, after Changxin goes public, we first look at how the first transaction of A-shares is anchored, and then see if it can stand back to the opening price and VWAP (volume weighted average price) after the first round of volume retracement. If the price increases again in volume and becomes stronger, it may replicate a second upward trend; If there is no significant rebound and the market cannot return to VWAP, it is more likely to converge towards the market valuation range of 29.9-44.9 yuan per share. Hyperliquid can observe this rhythm using 4-hour candlesticks, and the key is not whether each candlestick is exactly the same, but whether the "high opening, turnover, breakthrough, and valuation return" appear in sequence.
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