Over the past few days, BTC's rise has essentially been driven by: - CPI dropping more than expected - Lower rate hike expectations - Decline in U.S. Treasury yields This is a macro-driven move. How far it can go depends on how long market sentiment can hold up and whether real money will follow through! Looking at liquidation map data, there’s a large accumulation of long liquidations around 63,300 and 61,400, significantly higher than the short liquidation levels in the 66,000-66,800 range above. From a technical perspective, bitcoin:native is still in a mid-to-late bear market rebound structure, not the main bullish wave of a bull market. Although the daily chart shows a halt in the decline and a rebound, a true trend reversal requires BTC to stabilize above 66,800-67,000. Until then, all upward moves can only be defined as rebounds. From a macro perspective, the biggest driver of this rally isn’t the ETF, but rather the market revising down rate hike expectations after the latest CPI cooled off. With U.S. Treasury yields falling and the Nasdaq continuing to strengthen, risk assets as a whole are getting a breather. But here’s the thing: the market is currently trading on “no rate hikes,” not “rate cuts.” The real large-scale liquidity hasn’t returned yet. So, over the next 7 days, I think the most likely path is: First, test the 65,500-66,800 range, using short liquidations and sentiment recovery to push prices higher. Then, test the liquidity zone around 63,000, completing a round of position reshuffling before deciding the true direction for the second half of July. Key levels: - Resistance: 65,500-66,800 - After breakout: 68,000-70,000 - Support: 63,300 - Strong support: 62,000-61,400 My view is simple: now is neither the time to blindly short nor the time to go all-in long. Because the real big opportunities often don’t appear when everyone sees them, but when the market has shaken most people off the ride. In the next 7 days, the most likely scenario for BTC is not a one-sided rally, but first creating hope, then creating fear.