Phyrex|Jul 15, 2026 12:49
Tonight's PPI data looks good too, similar to the CPI data—both came in way below expectations, with monthly rates turning negative. This shows the impact of oil is starting to fade, and even core PPI data came in below expectations. Basically, core PCE data should also look decent.
Yesterday, Trump also TACO-ed. Now it all depends on the U.S.-Iran geopolitical tensions and their impact on oil prices. If oil prices drop back below $80, inflation will most likely continue to decline.
In plain terms, as long as Trump and Iran don’t stir up trouble, it’s hard to say about a Fed rate cut in 2026, but further rate hikes are pretty much off the table.
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