June CPI data from the U.S. delivered one of the best results we've seen in recent years: year-over-year growth at 3.5%, lower than market expectations; month-over-month decline of 0.4%, not only far exceeding expectations but also marking the first negative month-over-month growth in six years. After the data release, the market quickly pushed rate hike expectations from September to October, U.S. Treasury yields fell, the dollar weakened, and U.S. stocks, gold, and $BTC rebounded simultaneously. But what’s truly worth noting is that the Federal Reserve hasn’t changed its stance because of this. Walsh made it clear in Congress that one data point won’t lead to excessive optimism about inflation; Waller also reiterated that if inflation stagnates or rebounds in the future, he would still support rate hikes. The reason is simple: over the past five years, U.S. inflation has almost consistently exceeded the 2% policy target, and the 2021 misjudgment that "inflation is only temporary" ultimately cost the Fed 525 basis points in consecutive rate hikes. For the current Fed, one CPI report doesn’t indicate a trend—they need to see core inflation steadily decline for several consecutive months before they can truly believe inflation is under control. So, this CPI report only changed market expectations; it didn’t change the Fed’s logic. Moreover, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz has once again pushed up international oil prices, and energy prices inherently have strong ripple effects. If oil prices remain high in July, costs in transportation, manufacturing, and services could rise again, and July CPI might rebound. If that happens, the market’s recently postponed rate hike expectations for October could be brought forward again at any time. That’s why I won’t change my view just because of one impressive CPI report. What’s truly worth being optimistic about isn’t one data point exceeding expectations, but several consecutive months proving inflation is steadily returning to the 2% target. Until then, I still believe the entire financial market will continue to engage in liquidity-driven battles, and AI, U.S. stocks, gold, and $BTC won’t easily break into a true trend-driven market.