RBC expects the Bank of Canada to keep the overnight rate at 2.25% on Wednesday, marking a sixth consecutive hold after 50bp of cuts in Sept–Oct last year. RBC says the recent oil-price spike has not shown signs of evolving into a broader, persistent inflation shock, while Canadian growth and the labour market have improved: Q1 GDP was weaker than expected but Q2 momentum strengthened, May–June jobs data point to stabilization, and consumer spending remains resilient. On this basis RBC expects per-capita growth to gradually improve and the BoC to keep rates unchanged throughout 2026.(金十数据)