飞凡
飞凡|7月 15, 2026 02:08
The current slight liquidity easing environment is actually temporary. The rise of BTC and ETH is constrained by two forces: - Weak inflation in June, leading the market to trade on easing again, - The U.S. Treasury continuously spending cash from the TGA, essentially injecting money back into the banking system. By late July, these two forces will quickly reverse. The Treasury will need to issue new debt and replenish the TGA, causing funds to flow back into the Treasury's account from the market. At the same time, the overnight reverse repo pool is nearing depletion, which means the liquidity drain will more directly compress bank reserves and market leverage. Also, as I mentioned before, this round of inflation relief comes from falling oil prices. However, since refined oil supply remains tight, subsequent transportation and terminal energy costs will still push up July inflation.
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