2026 Bottom Signal Series 4- Tips from Classic MVRV MVRV， It should be the most well-known on chain data metric. Both experienced traders and novice players are familiar with it. Because it's simple and easy to use! It essentially measures the level of deviation between "market value" and "real value". For example, when MVRV=3, it means that BTC's "current market value" is 300% higher than its "realized market value" (the former is driven by emotions, while the latter is only determined by funds). A 300% premium is certainly clearly overheated. Therefore, as is well known, whenever MVRV>3, it is the entry of the bull market into the top range (Rule 1). Whenever MVRV<1, it is the bottom zone of a bear market (pattern 2). But unfortunately, in this cycle, Rule 1 has failed. MVRV reached 2.7 twice in March and November of 2024, but did not make any further progress. What many friends did not expect was that this was actually the highest value of this cycle. From this point, it can be seen that in the future, as the market value of BTC continues to increase, it will be inevitable for MVRV to show a mean regression trend! The upper and lower ends of the yellow line in the figure gradually approach the mean in the middle. The overall volatility of MVRV will continue to be compressed over the long term. Therefore, we can expect that at the peak of the next bull market, MVRV is likely to only touch and not significantly exceed the red line (mean+1 standard deviation), or even not reach it. Based on the current average, it is estimated to be around 13-14W (note: the longer the time, the greater the error). ⁉️ Since Rule 1 is invalid, will Rule 2 also be invalid? In the past, the MVRV of each bear market was less than 1, and this bear market has not yet appeared. According to the performance of past data and the logic of mean regression, the bottom MVRV of this round is also likely to only lightly touch the green line (mean -1 standard deviation), or even not reach it. Based on the current average, assuming BTC falls to around $50000, MVRV will touch the green line (-1 std). If the above logic holds, then the bear bottom of this round should occur at a position of 50000 or above. This conclusion still cannot tell us the exact bottom position, but it provides us with a reference range. Most importantly, it negates irrational expectations such as 3w/2w, which I personally think is valuable. It allows me to bet heavily in the 5w/6w range. This is also consistent with the conclusion we observed from the perspective of PSIP in the previous article. https://(x.com)/Murphychen888/status/2076841609480847798