Yigol
Yigol|7月 14, 2026 13:51
Why can a lower than expected inflation data simultaneously drive gold, Bitcoin, and the US stock market? On the surface, they appear to be three completely different assets: Gold trading hedging; Bitcoin transactions are scarce; Growth of US stock trading companies. But in many cases, they trade the same variable behind it: Price of USD liquidity After the latest inflation data in the United States cooled down, the market quickly lowered its expectations for further interest rate hikes. US Treasury bonds strengthened, the US dollar fell, gold rose more than 2% in a single day, and stock futures and Bitcoin also received support simultaneously. This is not a coincidence. Interest rates determine the opportunity cost of funds. When real interest rates rise: Cash and US bonds are more attractive; Gold is under pressure because it does not generate interest; The forward profits of overvalued technology stocks are re discounted; Bitcoin and other risky assets are also facing liquidity contraction. When interest rate expectations decrease, the above logic will reverse, so understanding global assets cannot only focus on the assets themselves. It depends on their position on the same balance sheet. But more importantly: Benefiting from liquidity does not necessarily mean that the upward logic is completely the same. The gold trading is: Monetary credit, real interest rates, and geopolitical risks. Bitcoin transactions are: Global liquidity, institutional funding, and digital scarcity. The US stock market trades on: Liquidity provides valuation and industry trends realize profits. That's also why, in the stage of loose liquidity, the three can rise together; But when the market starts testing fundamentals, they will quickly differentiate. Gold depends on whether real interest rates continue to fall. Bitcoin depends on whether ETF funds, stablecoin supply, and on chain liquidity truly expand. The US stock market will depend on whether AI capital expenditures can ultimately be converted into revenue, profits, and free cash flow. Therefore, I will not simply conclude that a new round of comprehensive bull market has begun just because of a day's rise. What is truly worth tracking next is: Can inflation continue to cool down; Is there a trend of decline in US bond yields; Whether the US dollar continues to weaken; Whether stablecoin and ETF funds have re entered; Can AI companies sustain current valuations in terms of profitability. Data changes expectations, expectations change funds, and funds ultimately change prices. Most people study the ups and downs every day. What is truly important is to find the main thread that drives all assets: Liquidity determines valuation, industry determines profits, and risk appetite determines price fluctuations. This is also the unified framework for my understanding of gold, Bitcoin, and the US stock market.
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