The Fed is sitting at 3.50-3.75% with a dot plot pointing to 3.8% while core is running 2.6% That is over 100 bps of real restrictiveness above core. If July and August hold anywhere near here and the hawkish pivot they just laid out 3 weeks ago looks like an overreaction to an oil shock they can’t control with monetary policy. The rate cut convo becomes real and Waller yesterday even said a hot print would be signal not noise. Bears will point to higher energy prices for this month but core still had shelter 0.1% and services flat.(CryptoISO)