The just released June CPI in the United States directly boosted BTC and ETH, but what this wave of gains really traded was not 'inflation has ended'. But rather: the expectation of interest rate hikes was suddenly partially dashed. The CPI in June increased by 3.5% year-on-year, lower than the market expectation of 3.8%; The month on month decrease was 0.4%, and more importantly, the core CPI was only 2.6% year-on-year, with zero month on month growth, which was also lower than expected. After the data was released, the Nasdaq futures rose by about 1.38% at one point, and risk assets collectively entered the risk on market, which is why BTC and ETH instantly rose. Because Crypto is no longer just about storytelling, but also about the US dollar, interest rates, and liquidity. Last night, the market was still worried about the "recent interest rate hike" mentioned by Waller. Today, as soon as the CPI came out, the logic immediately reversed: Inflation cooling down The necessity of raising interest rates has decreased → US Treasury yields and pressure on the US dollar → US stock valuation pressure eased High beta BTC and ETH rebound first But there is a detail that cannot be ignored here, that the significant drop in inflation this time is largely due to the decrease in energy prices; In recent times, the situation in the Middle East has escalated again, and oil prices have returned to above $80. In other words, this CPI looks good, but it may not be entirely sustainable. So I won't call for a bull market to restart just because of a single piece of data, it can only prove one thing: the market's pricing for interest rate hikes was too pessimistic before, and now it is being corrected. The three things that truly determine the height of the market next are: Will the Federal Reserve continue to send hawkish signals Will oil prices push up inflation again Can ETF funds keep up with the price rebound If there is only short covering without sustained capital inflows, this is still just a macro driven recovery. If the US stock market continues to strengthen, yields fall, and ETFs continue to receive net inflows, then this rebound may escalate from emotional recovery to trend reversal. The biggest change tonight is not a sudden rise, but a sudden realization in the market: what was originally thought to be a delay in raising interest rates, inflation is not that scary!