金十数据|7月 14, 2026 12:53
[CPI Data Below Expectations, Fed's July Rate Hike Bets Drop to 20%, U.S. Treasury Prices Surge]
Jin10 News, July 14 – Influenced by consumer price data coming in below expectations, traders have been pulling back their bets on Federal Reserve rate hikes, driving U.S. Treasury prices significantly higher. The yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury note, which is highly sensitive to the Fed's short-term monetary policy outlook, fell by as much as 14 basis points to 4.14%, marking the largest single-day drop since February. Meanwhile, the interest rate swaps market indicates that the probability of a Fed rate hike in July has dropped from over 40% to about 20%.
Dan Carter, Senior Portfolio Manager at Fort Washington Investment Advisors, stated: 'This is an across-the-board data miss. The likelihood of a near-term rate hike has essentially disappeared. The market was previously concerned about inflation data coming in too high, so this data should benefit the bond market and help steepen the yield curve again. Our baseline expectation is that the Fed will hold rates steady, and this data supports that view.'
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