Tonight at 20:30, the United States will release the June CPI, which is not only important for determining inflation levels, but also for determining whether the Federal Reserve will continue to tighten in the future. Federal Reserve Governor Waller has already outlined a policy path in advance: if inflation continues to exceed expectations, he supports recent interest rate hikes; Although we do not want to trigger a recession due to premature interest rate hikes, we cannot repeat the mistake of 'inflation is only temporary' in 2021. At the same time, he also specifically mentioned that if the foam of AI assets bursts or adjusts significantly in the future, the financial environment will change dramatically. This indicates that the Federal Reserve is not only focusing on inflation, but also paying attention to the impact of AI asset prices on the financial system. What we really need to see tonight is not whether CPI is 0.1% higher or lower, but whether core inflation is rising again. If core sub items such as housing, services, and healthcare continue to strengthen, it means that the rise in oil prices has begun to spread to the entire economy, and inflation may become sticky again. In that case, the Federal Reserve will have more compelling reasons to maintain high interest rates or even continue to raise them, and market pricing will further shift from when to cut rates to whether to raise rates again. If core inflation continues to fall, it means that the previous rise in oil prices has not formed a comprehensive price transmission, and market concerns about high interest rates will be significantly alleviated. For the market, the impact of CPI is never on prices themselves, but on liquidity expectations. Higher than expected US bond yields and the likelihood of the US dollar continuing to strengthen, AI, US stocks, and BTC, which are overvalued, will face valuation compression; Meeting expectations can only be considered a bearish landing; Only when it is significantly lower than expected, will the market re trade loose expectations. The entire financial market is currently waiting for a turning point in liquidity, and tonight's CPI data is likely to determine the expected direction of liquidity in the coming months.