Tonight, the key focus of the CPI isn’t the headline number, but the core CPI. The most likely scenario: Overall CPI might soften due to a drop in gasoline prices, and the market’s initial reaction will be to trade on “easing inflation pressure.” But what truly determines the sustainability of the trend is the core CPI. If the core CPI merely meets expectations, it indicates that sticky factors like service inflation, housing, and wages are still present, making it hard for the Fed to immediately turn dovish based on this data alone. Only if the core CPI comes in significantly below expectations will the market be more likely to reignite rate-cut speculation, pushing rate-cut expectations forward and giving risk assets stronger upward momentum. So here’s my take: If overall CPI drops as expected and core CPI meets expectations, $BTC will likely see a short-term pump but then return to consolidation. However, there’s one variable: oil prices. Currently, crude oil prices are back near $80. If they continue to rise, the market might start worrying about an energy inflation rebound again. In other words, even if this CPI looks good due to earlier gasoline price drops, if oil prices keep climbing, inflation expectations and U.S. Treasury yields could still rebound. If oil prices keep rising and Treasury yields follow suit, then any market rebound might be more of a shorting opportunity. In the end, the market is still being manipulated by Trump.