Pre Market Thoughts - 14 Jul 26 Yields are up 5-6bps along the curve since the start of the week. Huge things happened in Asia markets today so let's get along into it. Following a NY Close that seemed decently firm for all the headline bombs thrown at it. Korea got off an initial bounce in $0660 before it went to plunge new lows near the 1.6m KRW levels that i highlighted yesterday. On chats, DMs lighted up as people were wondering what to do. This is why its so important to have a plan and to follow it. Its very easy to say, oh just buy at support. Its much harder to do that AND follow a plan knowing the turmoil of emotions that you might have. Another tip for doing dip buying is that - NEVER use leverage and NEVER unload your full stack at one go. Why? because it is unlikely for you to actually catch the real bottom. Momentum dominates on short time frames and mean reversal dominates on longer time frame. You need to survive long enough to hit the mean reversal part of the chart. If you used leverage, post yesterday's move (i bidded my first stack at 2m KRW), then you might be feeling uneasy and unable to bid at 1.6/1.7m KRW levels because you are already down 30% on 2x lev! (that has become 3x lev - not good) KOSPI also tested the 6.4k level that was the Feb highs. This area is a good zone of support. Whilst i dont know if we might get new ATHs (fundamentally we should) but even a nice 20% bounce from here will be fantastic PnL and very good r/r. P/E ratios for semis are also back at start of year levels. This areas give great risk reward for anyone with a longer time horizon. Sectors i like - COMPUTE (Neoclouds), SKHY (this will attract flows from the cheapness of it - 4x 2027 PE), $285A (NAND...HBF bros) Again, it is much better to be able to last the journey than to take leverage and get blown up before the supercycle finishes. Going into the NYO today, we have CPI that is likely to come out hot. Yesterday fed speak was decidedly hawkish and this could be a short term obstacle for markets. Through this week, next week will be the start of big tech earnings. MS already raised hyperscaler capex expectations and i think semis have a good chance of rallying strongly pre earnings if sidelined market participants trigger a cascade of pre-emptive buying. Why is this even possible? Because liquidity more than ever is thinner and the market has a synthetic "short gamma" exposure via the leveraged ETFs that amplifies moves in both direction. Also the spread between $0660 and SKHY has magnified - like i said before, the conversion is a one way door. Putting on trades to narrow the premium is a quick way to kill yourself. On binance and HL perp, if you tried to put it on, the spread would have widened to 30% from 10% (you just lost 20% trying to close a 10% gap) AND carry cost of ~2% thus far. There are better ways to incinerate your portfolios. Good luck!(degentrading)