**[Wall Street Cautious of Tonight's CPI "False Cooling," Bond Market Bets on July Rate Hike]** BlockBeats News, July 14 – The U.S. will release its June CPI data tonight at 8:30 PM Beijing time. The market generally expects that, driven by a decline in gasoline prices, the overall CPI for June may decrease by 0.1% to 0.2% month-on-month, with the year-on-year growth rate expected to drop from 4.2% in May to 3.8%. Core CPI is projected to rise by about 0.2% month-on-month, with the year-on-year rate falling to approximately 2.8%. However, several Wall Street institutions believe that this cooling in inflation is largely due to the decline in energy prices and does not indicate that U.S. inflationary pressures have subsided. Factors such as housing, auto insurance, travel services, and tariffs' impact on goods prices may still keep core inflation sticky. At the same time, the bond market is further betting on a Federal Reserve rate hike. Interest rate options show that the implied probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike by the Fed in July has risen from less than 10% to about 50%, with the two-year U.S. Treasury yield remaining above 4.25%. Previously, Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that if core inflation rises again, a rate hike should be considered in the short term. Institutions generally believe that even if the overall CPI declines due to the drag from energy prices, the performance of core CPI and its subcomponents will remain key to determining whether U.S. inflation has truly peaked and the Fed's subsequent policy path. [Original Link]