The June CPI exhibits a clear statistical lag effect. If the nominal CPI falls from 4.2% in May to around 3.8%, it mainly reflects the temporary cooling of energy prices in June and does not indicate that overall inflationary pressures have subsided. The Cleveland Fed model estimates that June CPI may decline to around 3.9%, but core CPI remains close to 2.9%, showing that price pressures still have significant resilience. The market's real focus is on changes in the structure of inflation. A drop in energy prices may lead to an improvement in nominal inflation, but housing, service prices, and wage costs continue to support core inflation. A New York Fed survey shows that 1-year and 3-year inflation expectations continue to rise, suggesting that even if June CPI data shows improvement, the Federal Reserve still needs to observe whether this cooling trend is sustainable. Therefore, the key impact of this CPI lies in how the market interprets this decline. If core inflation remains elevated or energy prices rebound in July, trading logic may shift back to pricing the risk of secondary inflation. Against the backdrop of growing policy divisions within the Federal Reserve and weakened forward guidance, CPI is no longer just an inflation data point but an important signal influencing the interest rate path and asset pricing.