What the US stock market really needs to look at this week is not a single event, but three lines to verify together: Inflation, Federal Reserve, financial reports. 1/Tuesday's most crucial: US June CPI. If inflation continues to cool down, the market will re trade the expectation of interest rate cuts; But if core inflation remains sticky, especially in the areas of services, housing, and energy, technology and growth stocks may continue to be suppressed by interest rates. So this CPI is not just a data, but a decision on whether the market is willing to continue pricing high valuation assets. On the same day, there was also a congressional hearing by Federal Reserve Chairman Walsh. What the market is most afraid of now is not 'not cutting interest rates', but the Fed's hawkish tone once again. If his statement continues to emphasize the risk of inflation, the previously bet on loose expectations in the market will be revised. Simply put: CPI looks at data, hearings look at attitude. On Wednesday, focus on PPI, Beige Book, and ASML's financial report. PPI is an upstream signal of inflation, and the Beige Book looks at the temperature of the US real economy. ASML is an important link in the semiconductor chain, especially now that AI hardware transactions have just experienced a cooling off, the market will pay more attention to whether orders, guidance, and advanced process demand are relaxed. 4/Thursday is more lively: TSMC financial report+US retail sales+joint health financial report. TSMC's confidence in AI semiconductor mainline is determined. Retail sales determine whether American consumption can really withstand it. If chips are strong and consumption is not bad, then the market can continue to talk about soft landing and profit expansion. But if TSMC's guidance is conservative or consumer data clearly weakens, the market may begin to doubt: Can AI still sustain the index? Is the US economy starting to slow down? On Friday, I mainly watched Netflix's financial report and the market's final digestion of this week's data. This week is not an ordinary earnings week. It's more like a centralized inspection: Has inflation decreased? Will the Federal Reserve loosen its grip? Is the profitability of the banking industry stable or not? Is the AI semiconductor order still hard? Can American consumers continue to buy? My opinion is simple: The short-term market may be pulled back and forth by data, but the two things that truly determine direction are profitability and interest rates. Interest rates suppress valuation, financial reports validate growth. This week, the US stock market is facing these two forces head-on.