Dongfang Jincheng said upcoming June financial, trade and macro releases should show Q2 GDP around 4.4% and a K-shaped divergence: external demand and new-economy sectors outperform while domestic demand and traditional sectors remain weak. Liquidity stays broadly stable and loose, institutional under-allocation pressure persists, and rigid allocation demand is resilient—supporting bonds despite weak fundamentals. Market focus will shift toward a late-month Politburo meeting; changes in fiscal or monetary policy expectations could trigger episodic bond volatility. Ahead of clearer policy direction, a sustained trend is unlikely, and the bond market is expected to trade slightly firm and choppy this week.(金十数据)