China landed a rocket booster for the first time; Japan tested its own reusable rocket the next day. Cue questions about SpaceX's dominance cracking. It isn't, and Wall Street shows why. Price targets on SpaceX go as high as $800 a share (Morgan Stanley at $300, Goldman forecasting SpaceX's revenue will roughly double this year). That confidence comes down to launch dominance: of 165 Falcon 9 flights last year, 123 were Starlink missions, so SpaceX mostly flies its own satellites. It also handles five of the last seven Space Force/NRO launches, business that isn't shifting to a Chinese rocket over one test flight. Then there's the bigger bet: SpaceX folded in xAI and unveiled AI1, a satellite built as a flying AI server rack, a business Goldman sees growing from roughly $3B to $300B+ by 2030. SpaceX lost nearly $5B last year, but nobody's buying this for margins. They're buying Mars, orbital data centers, and Musk selling both as inevitable. China and Japan proved they can land a booster. SpaceX turned that trick into a trillion-dollar company with a government-locked monopoly and an AI story on top. Different races.(Lark Davis)